The general elections of 2024 have reminded the nation that electoral politics in India is a potboiler. There is no room for lethargy or complacency. The stage is now set for some high-volume drama in the state of Maharashtra where politics in the recent years has been nothing short of a roller-coaster. There are multiple constellations of power waiting to form and for the electorate there is a simmering hope for some stability after the last five years of chaos.
The BJP is on unsure footing, despite being able to secure a second-hand alliance with a split up Shiv Sena their performance in the 2024 general elections remained sub-par. On the face of it, it seems like the choice of candidates cost the BJP their expected success yet murmurs within the party suggest that there may be some serious tension within the state unit. With Gadkari focusing his energies as a cabinet minister, the state unit seems to have been left with a power struggle. So, the question emerges, who will bring in the X factor for the BJP in Maharashtra in the days to come?
The individual who has taken personal responsibility for the BJP’s performance in the state is Devendra Fadnavis. He has been somewhat of a poster child for the party, who started young with a strong RSS grooming and rose to ranks of power. Fadnavis has been instrumental in filling a leadership void after the passing of Gopinath Munde. In the context of the upcoming elections Fadnavis is a name that no one can ignore. He has been a key player in stitching together the Mahayuti, a googly that no one saw coming. He is well-connected with the RSS as he is with the BJP’s central leadership making him a formidable political figure. He is inalienable to the Mahayuti or any alliance that may take shape in Maharashtra. It is probably this multifaceted power that Fadnavis holds which is being disliked by some of his contemporaries.
The recent barrage of allegations by Anil Deshmukh against Fadnavis regarding horsetrading and coercive political action brings the latter into political chatter yet again. While the truth behind these claims is yet to be ascertained, the timing of these claims is important to note. Is Fadnavis being targeted because he is clearly ahead in the power race? Or is it because there is no alliance ahead for the BJP, if Fadnavis is tarnished? These theories cannot be put to rest as every opponent is set to gain if Fadnavis falls. His close aide Mohit Kamboj Bharatiya went as far as suggesting that BJP’s poor performance in the state could be attributed to energies being focused on derailing Fadnavis. All evidence points to the fact that no political mogul in the state can afford to ignore the “Fadnavis factor”.
So, what goes behind this “Fadnavis factor”? A strategic mind and pedigree. In the BJP, pedigree makes all the difference. The discipline of the RSS, the political grooming of the ABVP and the strategic maneuvering of the BJP are essential features of the same. Surprisingly, Fadnavis possesses both. He has a proven record of forming crucial alliances even when the odds are stacked against him. Maharashtra politics isn’t a bipolar game anymore, it is a curious mix of different power players who answer to various target groups. The need of the hour is to consolidate the correct power constellation, with the Shiv Sena (Shinde), NCP (Ajit Pawar) and the MNS. Only Fadnavis has shown the humility and shrewdness to act as a bridge between these diverse forces.
Yet, he is not without his own complexities. Fadnavis is known for his urban-oriented policy making and caste bias. This alienates a significant population from coming into the BJP’s fold. He needs to revisit his perception within the state in order to become more widely accepted. He needs to keep his allies closer than ever as the state enters yet another tumultuous election. He would have to strengthen the intra-party dynamics which currently seem to be in a state of chaos.
BJP’s performance in the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra will have far-reaching effects. Thus, a strong and strategic leadership is their best bet. Devendra Fadnavis appears as a natural choice he has the requisite chatter around him and he has proven useful to the party time and time again. Fadnavis is uniquely placed as a palatable leader with very strong connections. He has a surprising humility where he can put the party ahead of his personal ambitions. He is well versed with the state’s politics owing to his long-standing association with it, but what gives him the edge is his ability to use that knowledge to tangible ends. He has been able to design grand coalitions and also rise from the ashes of the same. A strategic mind is always an asset for the political theater.
It is clear from the attacks launched at Fadnavis that he is at the peak of relevance. There is no political discussion in the state that can be conceived of sans him. Whether he succeeds in tying all the loose ends and bringing electoral victory to the Mahayuti is yet to be seen. He will have to overcome both internal and external challenges to strengthen his footing. However, it is certain that the “Fadnavis factor” will remain crucial in the political future of Maharashtra. If the BJP wants to stay relevant and buoyant in Maharashtra, the central leadership would have to make way for Devendra Fadnavis.
